In general, midterm elections in the United States are not usually as important as presidential elections and are characterized, rather, by their low participation.
But those of this Tuesday, when all the members of the House of Representatives will be elected, 35 seats in the Senate and a majority of the country's governorships, are now seen by both parties as life or death. And in the center, as has happened over the past two years, is President Donald Trump.
In fact, most experts agree that the election day will be a referendum on his administration, which could well define what remains of his mandate in the White House.
The expectation is such that at least 25 million Americans have already voted in advance and it is expected that this week will break the record of participation for this type of election. And is that the bets could not be higher.
Currently, Republicans control both the House of Representatives (237 of the 435 seats) and the Senate (51 seats out of 100) and a majority of the country's governorships (33 among the 50 states).
For Trump, it is vital to preserve those majorities, since it depends not only on their margin of governance, but also on political survival: a Congress controlled by democrats could become a nightmare for the president, since it would block his entire agenda and launch countless investigations against him. and its officials.
To begin with, for example, such a scenario would imply the end of the wall that he promised to build on the border with Mexico, his efforts to completely dismantle the health reform that was approved when Barack Obama was in office and a brake on his Endeavor to modify and restrict the country's immigration system.
For his opponents, this Tuesday's elections are an almost unique opportunity to put a president in the middle who, they say, has divided the country in two and is taking it on the path of defeat both in the domestic arena and internationally.
Until September of this year that was the outcome that many of the pollsters were predicting because polls indicated that the intention to vote favored the Democrats by 15 points.
Something more than enough to guarantee a victory in the House and even dream of a triumph in the Senate, where the picture is not favorable because of the 35 seats at stake the Democrats are defending 26 (many of them in states where Trump won in 2016) and the Republicans only 9.
Trump took it upon himself to erase those advantages with his incendiary rhetoric and positions
extreme
In fact, it was reached to speak of a 'blue wave' in reference to the color of the US Democrats. UU
Although it is normal for the party in power to lose seats in this type of election, the dark outlook for Trump and the Republicans became more noticeable, since in practice they had everything to gain: the lowest unemployment in 50 years (3.7 percent), an expanding economy and a tax cut that always falls well in the pockets of voters.
"But Trump," says political scientist Jennifer Rubin, "took it upon himself to erase those advantages with his incendiary rhetoric and extreme positions."
That scenario, however, began to change from the battle that both parties fought during the confirmation process to the Supreme Court of Justice of Brett Kavanaugh, who was accused of sexual harassment by several women.
Although it was initially thought that it would affect the Republicans, it ended up motivating the party base. And to that was added an unexpected jump in the po[CENSORED]rity of Trump, which went from less than 38 percent to almost 45.
Since then, polls have been showing that the race has been tightened. The difference in the intention to vote, according to Gallup, has been reduced to less than 10 points and already the Democratic conquest of the Senate is very difficult, if not impossible.
"It's not that we believe the Democrats are going to lose the House. They are still favorites and have a 70 or 75 percent chance of winning. What we do see is that their majority will be close. The Senate does seem already outside of its aspirations, "says David Wasserman, who works in Cook Report, an entity specializing in this type of electoral calculations.
It's not that we believe the Democrats are going to lose the House. They are still favorites and have a 70 or 75 percent chance of prevailing
In other words, the probable outcome is a divided Congress. Which would put an end to Trump's most controversial proposals, and torpedo him with investigations, but leave him open to continue confirming conservative judges - something the Senate does.
These last two weeks have been full of explosive news, which could still change the course of the results. On the one hand, the case of a Trump supporter who sent bomb packages to the main Democratic leaders, another that murdered 11 Jews in a Pittsburgh church and a third that shot at African-Americans have caused horror in the country and many point to Trump. as responsible for the incendiary rhetoric he uses to attack his rivals.
The president, for his part, has revived the anti-immigrant oratory that gave him such good results in the 2016 elections to convince his base to go to the polls.
This same week, he sent more than 5,000 soldiers to the border with Mexico to stop a caravan of migrants coming from Honduras and describing them as a group of invaders, including criminals and even terrorists from the Middle East.
A very toxic environment that will probably get worse once the results of the elections are known, because in the background all eyes are already on the 2020 election, when Trump will go for re-election and control of the Congress.