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Wolf.17

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Everything posted by Wolf.17

  1. The White House’s address may be 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but the real road to the presidency runs through the state of Pennsylvania, the biggest prize among the electoral battleground map. According to calculations by elections analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House. “It’s the granddaddy of all the swing states,” said former congressman Patrick Murphy, who represented north-eastern Pennsylvania as a Democrat from 2007-11. With its 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania – the fifth most populous US state - is the lynchpin of the swing-state electoral firewalls for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. If the Democrats win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, along with one congressional district in Nebraska, she’s the next president. If the Republicans carry Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, Trump is back in the White House next year. Without Pennsylvania, there is no way Trump can win without flipping at least three of the states Joe Biden won in 2020. Nicknamed the Keystone State, Pennsylvania could in fact be the key to the White House. It is also where BBC Question Time will broadcast a US election special on Thursday 10 October, diving into the issues and voter concerns behind the presidential contest. Pennsylvania is not only the most valuable swing state, it also can be seen as a microcosm of the US as a whole – demographically, economically and politically. It is a former manufacturing state that has been transitioning to newer industries and businesses, but it has a large energy sector because of its abundant oil shale deposits. Agriculture is still the second-largest industry in the state. The majority of the po[CENSORED]tion is white, but there are growing immigrant communities. Some areas, like Allentown – the working-class factory city made famous by a Billy Joel song – are now majority Hispanic. The state’s black po[CENSORED]tion, at 12%, is just under the US total of 13%. As for the politics, the state’s two large urban areas, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, heavily favour the Democrats. Between the two are vast stretches of rural territory where Republicans dominate. And the suburbs that once were reliably conservative are now tilting to the left. That gives rise to the old quip that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with (deeply Republican) Alabama in the middle. Somehow, all these political cross-currents and shifting dynamics have kept Pennsylvania at a near dead-even balance when it comes to presidential elections. President Joe Biden won the state by about 80,000 votes in 2020. Donald Trump carried it by about 40,000 in his surprise 2016 win over Hillary Clinton. Only once in the last 40 years has a candidate won Pennsylvania by double-digits - Barack Obama in his 2008 electoral landslide. Current polling puts the race between Harris and Trump in the state at a virtual dead heat. According to the 538/ABC News poll tracker, Harris holds a lead by less than a percent – a margin that has hardly shifted over the course of this tumultuous political year. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have been pouring enormous resources into Pennsylvania. They are spending more on television advertising there than any other swing state. Both candidates make regular visits. Harris introduced her running mate pick, Tim Walz, at a rally in Philadelphia. She spent days preparing for her presidential debate in Pittsburgh. She made a tentpole economic speech there two weeks ago. Last Saturday, Trump held a massive rally in Butler, where in July he was nearly assassinated. On Wednesday he was in Biden's hometown of Scranton and Reading. And when the principals aren’t around, both campaigns have other politicians and officials to drum up support. “A candidate can't go into a county to talk to 1,200 people,” says former Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell. “The state is too big. There’s just not time. That’s what surrogates are for.” Rendell notes that the current governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro, is a big help for Democrats here, as he is very po[CENSORED]r in the state and a dynamic speaker – qualities that had made him the odds-on favourite to be Harris’s vice-presidential pick. For Harris, her keys to victory are to post dominating numbers in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and win the suburbs by enough to offset Trump’s margins in the rest of the state. An essential part of this strategy is to win over moderate voters and some Republicans – including the more than 160,000 who turned out to vote for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the state’s Republican primary, held earlier this year, well after Trump had already locked up the party’s nomination. “What these people need to hear is ways in which both the past record of Kamala Harris and the future plans of Kamala Harris are basically centrist positions – that she is not this crazy, wild-eyed radical leftist,” said Craig Snyder, former Republican Senate staffer who is running Pennsylvania's “Haley Voters for Harris” effort. He added that the Harris campaign is making the most extensive effort to reach Republican voters that he’s seen in a generation. Trump’s strategy is to squeeze all the support he can out of the conservative parts of the state, including by registering and mobilising those who may not have participated in past elections – a move Trump’s campaign officials say is a central focus of their grass-roots effort. There are signs their work may be paying off, too. Registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the state, but the margin is just a few hundred thousand - the smallest its been since the state first began releasing figures in 1998. While the college-educated voters in the suburbs may be difficult to convince, the Trump team thinks it can also chip away at traditionally Democratic support among blue-collar union voters and young black men. “We've seen nationally that Trump has made some real inroads with African American men,” said Farah Jimenez, a conservative education activist. “They're here in Philadelphia, and if you can convince them that he speaks more clearly to the things that concern them, it can at least start to provide a base for Republicans in Philadelphia.” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8705wv99ryo
  2. The 2025 Volkswagen Taos sees a thorough refresh, with updated exterior styling, a redone interior, and more standard features. Some work in the engine room yielded an additional 16 horsepower from the Taos's turbocharged 1.5-liter four-cylinder, for a total of 174 hp. VW will offer the updated Taos subcompact SUV by the end of this year; the base-level front-drive S starts at $26,420 and the full-zoot SEL crests $36K. UPDATE 8/10/24: VW today released pricing for the 2025 Taos lineup. The base-level front-wheel-drive S trim starts at $26,420, which is $1000 more than last year. The available 4Motion all-wheel-drive system adds $1700 to the price of all Taos models. The front-drive SE and SE Black start at $29,320 and $31,570, respectively. The top-of-the-line SEL is only offered with all-wheel drive, and it starts at $36,120. Volkswagen has learned its lesson about what it should and shouldn't import from the Continent. No longer trying to force European-ness on the American po[CENSORED]ce, the brand is instead focused on giving North Americans what they want. That's the story with the updated 2025 Taos subcompact SUV, which was just unwrapped. VW engineers massaged parts of the 1.5-liter engine—piston rings, turbocharger housing, fuel injectors—and gave it a larger intercooler as well as a gas particulate filter. The result is a 16-hp boost, for a new total of 174 horsepower. The torque output of 184 pound-feet stands pat, but differences in the torque curve could provide some accelerative improvement. For reference, the 158-hp Taos hit 60 mph in 7.4 seconds with front-wheel drive and 7.5 when equipped with 4Motion all-wheel drive. One other powertrain update: All-wheel-drive models will now get an eight-speed automatic transmission as front-drive models always have, in place of the outgoing AWD model's seven-speed dual-clutch auto. Apparently non-enthusiasts were not enthusiastic about that transmission's occasionally clunky shift quality, with some customers thinking "their car is breaking," according to product manager Melinda Godec. This change leaves the Jetta GLI and Golf GTI and Golf R as the only U.S.-market offerings still available with a DSG. We're okay with that. An 8.0-inch touchscreen is now standard on all models; it floats in front of the revised dash panel instead of being fully integrated like before. Wired Apple CarPlay and Android Auto are included on the base model, while upper trims get wireless phone mirroring and some extra features, including voice control and satellite radio. VW's touch-sensitive climate interface is now standard on the SE in addition to SEL models. The little SUV's front- and rear-end treatments are fresh, with a standard full-width light bar in back and shorter headlights that are connected by illuminated trim on the top trim. The S now comes with LED projector headlights, and SE models also get adaptive headlights and front and rear parking sensors. VW doesn't have final fuel-economy numbers for the updated Taos, but the company expects the ratings to meet or exceed those of 2024 models. In the past we saw as much as 40 mpg from the front-drive Taos in our 75-mph highway fuel-economy testing, which beats that model's highway number by 4 mpg; the all-wheel-drive Taos scored 33 mpg in that test, 1 mpg better than the number on its window sticker. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a62154566/2025-volkswagen-taos-revealed/
  3. Stress is an inevitable part of modern life, especially when balancing personal and professional responsibilities. However, finding ways to manage it effectively is crucial to maintaining overall well-being. Deepika Padukone and media mogul Arianna Huffington recently sat down to chat about a simple yet powerful technique during the LiveLoveLaugh Lecture Series. This was Padukone’s first appearance after giving birth to a baby girl in September this year. Huffington, the founder and CEO of Thrive Global, described the concept of ‘60-second reset’ to help manage stress. “Stress is unavoidable,” she said when Padukone asked about the technique. Dr Aarushi Dewan, clinical psychologist and founder at Coping Keys, tells indianexpress.com, “The ’60-second reset’ is based on the principles of mindfulness, cognitive behavioral techniques (CBT), and neuroscience. It involves briefly interrupting the stress cycle and shifting focus, which can help regulate the body’s autonomic nervous system and reduce the emotional and physiological impact of stress.” Key psychological mechanisms at work, according to Dr Dewan Mindfulness and Present Moment Awareness: In a stressful situation, your mind often becomes flooded with intrusive thoughts, worries, or future-oriented anxiety. The 60-second reset involves a quick shift of attention—through techniques like focused breathing, sensory awareness, or grounding exercises—redirecting the brain away from stressors and into the present moment. This shift helps deactivate the sympathetic nervous system (which controls the fight-or-flight response) and activate the parasympathetic nervous system, promoting relaxation. https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/feelings/world-mental-health-day-deepika-padukone-arianna-huffington-reset-stress-9613576/
  4. A dog has been rescued after a "dangerous" fall from a cliff edge. The Freshwater lifeboat crew said it was an "incredible outcome" that Ted the dog wasn't hurt during the fall on the Isle of Wight. He had been on a walk with his owner on Tennyson Downs near Freshwater Bay at about 11:00 BST on Wednesday. The dog owner's friend realised Ted had wandered off and fellow walkers reported seeing a dog near the cliff edge. Freshwater Independent Lifeboat (FILB) explained Ted was considered a "well behaved dog, who normally kept far from the cliff edge" so these reports "sparked immediate concern" for the owner. The statement said the owner, who wished to remain anonymous, contacted the Coastguard, followed by FILB who launched a crew at 13:10. "Coastguard teams arrived shortly after, preparing to abseil down the cliffs if necessary", the statement explained. "However, FILB crew member James Metcalfe courageously entered the water and made his way ashore, successfully retrieving Ted from the base of the cliff." Ted was returned to land at about 14:30 and taken to the vet for overnight observation, but FILB said he was reportedly "in good health" and that it was "an incredible outcome after such a dangerous fall". The statement added: "We want to thank the local community for their continued support and remind dog owners to take extra care when walking near cliff edges. "This story serves as a reminder of the importance of our life-saving teams and the incredible work they do." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgk7081x53lo
  5. Lee Carsley's honeymoon period as England interim manager came to a crashing halt as a Vangelis Pavlidis double gave Greece a deserved 2-1 Nations League win at Wembley. Carsley had appeared a shoo-in for the job ahead of kick-off, but his experimental England line-up and the disjointed performance which followed will raise more questions than answers as they fell to FIFA's 48th-ranked side. Pavlidis slotted Greece ahead five minutes into the second half after dancing past a number of England players, but the visitors almost led much earlier when it needed an acrobatic goal-line clearance from Levi Colwill to deny Tasos Bakasetas. England vs Greece - As it happened How the teams lined up | Match stats Nations League tables | Fixtures The visitors saw three more goals denied by narrow offside calls, indicative of England's open and often porous defence, while a late scramble leading to Pavlidis' 94th-minute winner was typical of their evening - and nothing less than Greece deserved. https://www.skysports.com/football/england-vs-greece/report/503579
  6. Twenty-two people have been killed and 117 injured in Israeli air strikes on central Beirut, Lebanon's Health Ministry said. BBC reporters heard loud explosions echoing from the site of a strike in Bachoura, a small Shia area in the Lebanese capital. Rescuers were seen digging through rubble at the scene. Ambulances rushed many injured to the American University hospital. Unconfirmed media reports suggested the apparent target was Wafiq Safa, Hassan Nasrallah's brother-in-law and one of Hezbollah's high-ranking security officials. The group's media office has not yet commented. The Beirut strikes came after two relatively calm days in Lebanon’s capital, which has felt unusual after intensive strikes in recent weeks. There was no warning beforehand. This is the third time Israel has launched air strikes on the city outside of the suburb of Dahieh, where it has struck repeatedly, killing Hezbollah commanders and destroying munitions caches. One woman outside the hospital, who did not want to be named, said she was in the building next-door to the blast and heard the explosion. She said the building which was hit was entirely residential, adding that it was about four or five floors high. One of her relatives was being treated for head injuries. The Beirut attack came hours after two Indonesian peacekeepers were injured in southern Lebanon when an Israeli tank fired at a watchtower, according to the UN. An observation tower at a UN base in Naqoura was directly hit, causing the peacekeepers to fall, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) said in a statement. Unifil is a UN peacekeeping mission created in 1978, monitoring hostilities and helping to ensure humanitarian access to civilians in southern Lebanon. The UN said Israeli forces had "repeatedly hit" UN positions in the last 24 hours. Israeli soldiers are also accused of deliberately shooting at the cameras and lights at two other Unifil bases. The IDF said its troops had fired from the area around the base after ordering members of the base to remain in "protected places". Both peacekeepers were not seriously injured but remain in hospital, the UN said, adding that deliberate attacks on its peacekeepers were a "grave violation of international law". In a separate incident, Israeli soldiers fired at a base in Naqoura, "hitting the entrance to the bunker where peacekeepers were sheltering, and damaging vehicles and a communications system," the UN added. An Israeli drone was also spotted flying above the bunker entrance. Also in Naqoura, Hezbollah said it fired rockets at Israeli soldiers on the ground and used guided missiles to destroy a tank heading towards the area, leading to casualties. There are now four divisions of Israeli soldiers fighting inside Lebanon as it continues its ground operations against Hezbollah, launched on 30 September. A spokesperson for Unifil told the BBC on Thursday the force was "alarmed" and "deeply concerned" by the Israeli army's activity in the area where peacekeeping troops are based. Positions hit by Israeli forces are well known as UN sites, Andrea Tenenti said, adding it would be important to have a discussion with Israeli authorities "to understand what happened". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjd58p1g515o
  7. StreetZM still looking for active admins if you are intrested pm @BMW e63 ! @Dark

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