[News] COP26: The truth behind the new climate change denial

[rlex]

 

As world leaders met at the COP26 summit to debate how to tackle climate change, misleading claims and falsehoods about the climate spiralled on social media.

Scientists say climate change denial is now more likely to focus on the causes and effects of warming, or how to tackle it, than to outright deny it exists.

The 'd-words' v the planet

We've looked at some of the most viral claims of the past year, and what the evidence really says.
The claim: A 'Grand Solar Minimum' will halt global warming
People have long claimed, incorrectly, that the past century's temperature changes are just part of the Earth's natural cycle, rather than the result of human behaviour.

facebook post marked false which says: Exactly! Not global warming. It's all natural climate change not man made at all. That was to get the rich more money and it did. We are headed right back to where we started and just have to adapt. We have to learn from our experiences of these events. We have to be prepared not scared. I've learn so much this week from these two major snow storms we got and that brutal cold air. I learned that I'm not even prepared so now I must prepare because it's going to get worse and we can't rely on the government. Just ask Texas. We must adapt and be ready. The post links to an article about the Grand Solar Minimum
In recent months, we've seen a new version of this argument.

Thousands of posts on social media, reaching hundreds of thousands of people over the past year, claim a "Grand Solar Minimum" will lead to a natural fall in temperatures, without human intervention.

But this is not what the evidence shows.

A grand solar minimum is a real phenomenon when the Sun gives off less energy as part of its natural cycle.

Studies suggest the Sun may well go through a weaker phase sometime this century, but that this would lead, at most, to a temporary 0.1 - 0.2C cooling of the planet.

That's not nearly enough to offset human activity, which has already warmed the planet by about 1.2C over the past 200 years and will continue to rise, possibly topping 2.4C by the end of the century.

A simple guide to climate change
We know recent temperature rises weren't caused by the changes in the Sun's natural cycle because the layer of atmosphere nearest the earth is warming, while the layer of atmosphere closest to the Sun - the stratosphere - is cooling.

Heat which would normally be released into the stratosphere is being trapped by greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from people burning fuel.

If temperature changes on Earth were being caused by the Sun, we would expect the whole atmosphere to warm (or cool) at the same time.

The claim: Global warming is good
Various posts circulating online claim global warming will make parts of the earth more habitable, and that cold kills more people than heat does.

These arguments often cherry-pick favourable facts while ignoring any that contradict them.

For example, it's true that some inhospitably cold parts of the world could become easier to live in for a time.

But in these same places warming could also lead to extreme rainfall, affecting living conditions and the ability to grow crops,

At the same time, other parts of the world would become uninhabitable as a result of temperature increases and rising sea levels, like the world's lowest-lying country, the Maldives.

We face climate extinction, at-risk nations say

There may be fewer cold-related deaths. According to a study published in the Lancet, between 2000 and 2019, more people died as a result of cold weather than hot.

However, a rise in heat-related deaths is expected to cancel out any lives saved.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says overall, "climate-related risks to health [and] livelihoods...are projected to increase with global warming of 1.5 degrees". Any small local benefits from fewer cold days are expected to be outweighed by the risks of more frequent spells of extreme heat.

The claim: Climate change action will make people poorer
A common claim made by those against efforts to tackle climate change is that fossil fuels have been essential to driving economic growth.

So limiting their use, the argument goes, will inevitably stunt this growth and increase the cost of living, hurting the poorest.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59251912