Week 13 SEC football betting preview

[King_of_lion]

exas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond passes during an SEC game against Mississippi State on Oct. 26, 2019, at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas.

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By Christopher Smith
This is the calm before the storm known as rivalry week.

The schedule features three conference games, including Arkansas at No. 1 LSU. The rest of the SEC is off or plays an FCS opponent.

This is one of two regular-season Saturdays left, so let’s look for betting opportunities.

Western Carolina at Alabama

Kickoff: noon ET Saturday Line: Alabama -56.5 Over/Under: 61 Ticket Count: Western Carolina 68%

The total opened in the 70s. I loved the under at 67 earlier in the week, but it has moved too much to recommend now.

The Crimson Tide are expected to rest defensive linemen Raekwon Davis (ankle), DJ Dale (knee) and Phidarian Mathis (undisclosed) and play with seven scholarship defensive linemen.

Alabama has allowed 3.9 yards per carry, its worst mark since 2006, Mike Shula’s last season. A severely depleted front seven now faces a team that runs the option, but also throws on 42.6 percent of its snaps, so the Tide won’t know when it’s coming.

Western Carolina faces a severe talent disadvantage, but I think the Catamounts can threaten 10 points and move the ball at least sporadically, which will shorten the game.

Alabama’s game plan should be conservative. I expect that the team to establish the run and avoid giving Auburn any new tips on defending the Mac Jones-led passing game.

THE PLAY: lean Western Carolina +56.5

Samford at Auburn

Kickoff: noon ET Saturday Line: Auburn -48.5 Over/Under: 64 Ticket Count: Samford 63%

Samford, my alma mater, nearly beat Florida State last season. But Devlin Hodges played quarterback for that team, and now he plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Auburn will cruise despite a vanilla game plan and despite pulling its starters at some point.

However, Samford scored 26, 14 and 41 points the last three years against Florida State, Georgia and Mississippi State. Its quick passing game is a good offense against superior physical talent, especially at the line of scrimmage.

Let’s say Auburn holds Samford to 10. That would necessitate a 59-point outburst to cover the spread. With the Iron Bowl on deck, I don’t think the Tigers will be motivated to deliver that sort of beatdown.

THE PLAY: Samford +48.5

Texas A&M at Georgia

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Line: Georgia -13 Over/Under: 44 Ticket Count: Texas A&M 54%

I’ve been cashing Georgia under tickets for weeks. I see no reason to deviate.

Texas A&M features a respectable defense (SP+ No. 22), which has proven to be enough to keep Georgia relatively in check. The Bulldogs have scored an average of 25.8 points against Power 5 competition, and that includes 43 at Tennessee and 30 at Vanderbilt.

Thanks to a slow offensive tempo, a run-heavy strategy and a sound defense full of five-star players, Georgia (9-1) has won a lot of boring games with a limited number of possessions.

Against the three best teams it has faced (Clemson, Auburn, Alabama), Texas A&M averaged 19.3 points despite scoring some late cosmetic touchdowns.

Expect something like Georgia 24, Texas A&M 13.

THE PLAY: under 44

UT-Martin at Kentucky

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Line: Kentucky -29.5 Over/Under: 43.5 Ticket Count: Kentucky 90%

Florida, 13th in the SEC in rushing yards per game, ran for 6.1 yards per carry against the Skyhawks earlier this season. Quarterbacks Feliepe Franks and Emory Jones ran 10 times for 68 yards.