[News] House Republicans escaped disaster in North Carolina, but

[Lunix I]

Republican Dan Bishop beat Democrat Dan McCready in a special election in North Carolina's 9th District, an outcome that, given the clear Republican lean of the suburban Charlotte district, should have been a lay-up for the GOP. Bishop won by 2 points after both national parties spent more than $10 million in the district.

That Bishop won -- whether by two votes, 2 points or 20 points -- averts what would have been an absolute panic within the GOP conference had he come up short. Politics is, at its essence, about winning and losing -- and when you have a party coming off as sweeping a defeat as House Republicans suffered in 2018, it's always a good thing to wind up on the victorious side of the ledger.
But it is also true that Bishop's victory -- and the way in which it was achieved -- should still be read as a warning sign for a party that is dealing with a very unpo[CENSORED]r President and a decidedly unsettled political environment. Consider:

• 1) President Donald Trump won this seat by 12 points in 2016. Mitt Romney won it by 10. A Democrat hasn't represented this area in Congress since the 1960s.
• 2) There are 34 seats currently held by Republican incumbents where Trump won by less in 2016 than he did in North Carolina's 9th.
• 3) National Republicans will not be able to spend multiple millions next November to save every seat with the political profile of the North Carolina seat.

"To be clear: a ~2% Bishop (R) victory in #NC09, a district that voted for Trump by 12%, is still bad news for the House GOP overall," tweeted David Wasserman, the House editor for the non-partisan political handicapping site the Cook Report. "It won't do anything to convince House Rs undecided about seeking reelection in 2020 that they're in position to win back the majority."

Now, it is also true that Republicans faced unique challenges in the 9th -- due to the fact that the 2018 result was thrown out due to widespread alleged absentee ballot fraud by a consultant affiliated with the Republican nominee's campaign. That isn't something they will need to deal with in the vast majority of other competitive districts in the country.