Vengeance

Ask anyone to make a list of the worst natural disasters, and you’re likely to get a dissertation on the relative risks of hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, and similar terrestrial events. A solar storm, in contrast, is unlikely to make anyone’s Top 5. According to Joseph N. Pelton, the former dean of the International Space University, that’s a critical error in thinking that we need to address. Pelton, who also serves as a board member of the International Association of Space Safety (IAASS), argues that humanity should create an artificial Van Allen belt to supplement the natural Van Allen belts that already exist around Earth. These belts extend from an altitude of 600 to 36,000 miles above the Earth’s surface and form a natural shield that prevents high-energy particles from hitting the Earth’s atmosphere. Ordinarily, the Earth’s magnetosphere shapes the Van Allen Belts and deflects the charged particles emitted by the sun (called the solar wind), while the VABs act to block high-energy electrons. Periodically, however, the sun releases solar flares. These flares are high-energy events that release a concentrated burst of energy in a particular direction. If that direction happens to be towards us, it can temporarily compress the magnetic field and allow high-energy particles through the Van Allen Belts. The largest flares are sometimes accompanied by a coronal mass ejection — and as Pelton notes, these have the potential to wreak serious damage on both satellites and Earth infrastructure. There’s certainly reason for concern. On September 1, 1859, the most powerful geomagnetic storm of modern times hit the Earth. Aurorae, normally visible only at high latitudes, reached the Caribbean. The glow over the Rocky Mountains was so bright, gold miners reportedly exited their tents and began preparing breakfast. Telegraphs failed across the world — though in some areas, they continued to send and receive messages, even after being disconnected from their electrical supplies. The event became known as the Carrington Event, after British astronomer Richard Carrington — but what caused small problems and unusual events in the 1800s would be absolutely devastating today. The handful of moderate geomagnetic storms in the last 40 years have caused significant damage to the grid; a full hammerblow would destroy the US electrical grid for several years. The economic impact of a similar disaster today is estimated at $2.6 trillion. Often, when online publications write disaster-themed science stories, there are a number of comforting facts buried below the lede to take the edge off. Sure, a dinosaur-level extinction event could make for a really rocky millennium or two on Earth, but the chances of a rock that big hitting the planet are minuscule. Reading up on the potential impact [PDF] a coronal mass ejection (CME) could have on Earth offers no such comfort. The truth is, solar flares as large as the one that caused the 1859 Carrington Event happen fairly regularly. Since we started monitoring the Sun’s solar cycle, we’ve gotten lucky on a number of occasions — CMEs that would have hit us even harder than 1859 have merely glanced us due to a non-ideal trajectory. Meanwhile, the United States’ grid is more vulnerable to such events than ever before — our transformer grid is, on average, nearly 40 years old, high-voltage power lines are carrying far more energy than they used to on a day-to-day basis, and there’s virtually no way to quickly repair the damage such a storm would cause. Cloudy with a chance of civilization-crippling electromagnetic forces Just how much of a threat is this? We consulted the Department of Energy’s own research to get a better idea. According to that report, transformers are custom-designed, highly intricate, take up to two years to manufacture, cost between $5-7 million apiece, and weigh between 100 and 400 tons. Ordinary transformers are far too bulky and heavy to ship by road, and must be moved around the country in specially-designed railcars. Smaller models are available, but are typically more expensive.

Ann Arbor - Tim Kaine's role as Hillary Clinton's vice presidential running mate means he'd be one heartbeat away from the presidency. Clinton's health scare, complete with a widely-viewed video of her stumbling and being supported by aides after abruptly leaving a 9/11 memorial service in New York City, makes that fact more relevant to some — and a bit awkward. Former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland found that out by offering what's usually benign praise of any presidential running mate, telling an audience on Monday that Kaine was, "wonderfully prepared" to "be the president if that ever became necessary." Asked the same day if there's more pressure to prove he's up for the presidency given Clinton's pneumonia, the usually folksy and expansive Kaine was curt: No, he said, he absolutely does not think that. He did not elaborate. As Clinton recovers from pneumonia and prepares to resume campaigning on Thursday, Kaine is emphasising instead that her "energy staggers me. I have a hard time keeping up with her”. "She is working so hard, even pushing through. She got told, 'Hey, you're a little bit sick’," Kaine told hundreds of supporters from the steps of the graduate library on the University of Michigan campus during a Tuesday rally. He characterised Clinton's response as: "Well, I'm going to still go at it". Clinton's illness could put more pressure on Kaine to look more presidential — instead of just relishing his usual role as political attack dog or top Clinton cheerleader. But Kaine can't embrace that too much without calling unwanted attention to Clinton's health. Clinton's illness was on the minds of some voters as Kaine briefly visited Michigan, a swing state that he promised was "going to be close" between Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in November.