[Politics] Ukraine hopes its incursion into Russia changes outcome of war

[X A V I]

 

Arni joined the Ukrainian army in 2022 to fight for his country’s survival. When we bump into him 30 months later, he describes a new motivation. “Peace.”

“No-one likes war, we want to finish it,” he says while leaning against his camouflaged pick-up truck.

For the troops we encounter close to Russia’s border, there’s a desire to end Russia’s invasion on acceptable terms.

That is not to say survival isn’t a core driver - it is - but they seem to be striving for a finish line.

“For Ukraine, our people, we’ll stand until the end,” adds Arni.

Until 6 August, Ukraine’s sole objective was one of liberation. The complete repelling of Russian forces to its borders from before Russia first invaded in 2014.

Albeit at a grinding pace, the reverse has been happening for the past year-and-a-half with Moscow eroding Ukrainian territory.

Then came the “all in” poker play which surprised everyone apart from the battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers who carried it out: a counter-offensive into Russia’s Kursk region.

“It was undeniably successful and daring,” observes Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Co-operation Centre, a think tank.

Now, Kyiv can’t reference its offensive often enough, with countless pictures of troops giving out aid as they tear down Russian flags.

“It also changes the narrative,” says Alina Frolova, security expert and former deputy defence minister of Ukraine. “A situation where we’re losing territory step by step is not a good one.

“Ukraine’s strategic position has changed.”

Despite parallels with Russia’s initial invasion, Kyiv claims its goal is not to occupy.

So what is the aim? Well, there’s more than one.

“This attack was partly carried out so the city of Sumy was better protected,” explains Serhii Kuzan, who thinks it is often forgotten that the border is still a front line.

Since the start of this summer, President Volodymyr Zelensky says there were more than 2,000 strikes on the Sumy region from the Kursk region alone, including 250 glide bombs.

For months it was feared Russian troops were preparing for a cross-border attack of their own, and by pushing them back, Serhii believes defending Ukraine in general will be easier.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8lzyjprymo