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EPA Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu with Vladimir Putin at the Victory Day parade in Moscow, 9 May 2024

 

Thought number one: whoever's sitting around the cabinet table in Russia, there's only one man taking the key decisions in the country - and that's President Putin.

In modern Russia the entire political system is constructed around him. It's worth keeping in mind when discussing who's in and who's out of the government. Central policy is unlikely to change.

Does that mean that a Russian government reshuffle isn't interesting, or significant?

No, it doesn't. Sergei Shoigu's departure from the defence ministry is fascinating on many levels.

After all - and this brings us on to thought number two - reshuffles are a rare thing in Russia. At least, as far as the most prominent political players are concerned.

Take Sergei Lavrov, Russia's veteran foreign minister. He's had the job for 20 years. Sergei Shoigu had been defence minister for 12 years (in that time, the UK has been through six secretaries of defence).

Mr Shoigu is considered a close ally of President Putin.

Cue to thought number three: being close to Putin, going on fishing and hunting trips with the president (yes, Sergei Shoigu did that - they even, famously, went mushroom-picking together), none of that is any guarantee you'll keep your job.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69006046

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