[Politics] Democrats wrestle with the Biden conundrum

[GlaD1]

Democrats wrestle with the Biden conundrum

Analysis: Voters have concerns about President Joe Biden’s age. Biden’s team has been unwilling to answer those worries.

Amid all of the news and issues on the top of political minds, there is one non-versation that continues to dominate: Can Joe Biden do this again?

I call it a “non-versation” because the folks wringing their hands the most about whether Biden is up to the task of winning in 2024 are people who, in many cases, have already endorsed him for re-election. A few even work directly for him — and are still having the same uneasy feeling as they watch Donald Trump methodically consolidate Republican support while a right-wing information ecosystem turns the Biden brand into the Clinton brand circa 2016.

 

Ultimately, Democrats in Washington — in both the executive and the legislative branches — share the same concern voters have been expressing for the last six months: They fear voters can’t be convinced Biden is up to the job, and they don’t have confidence the team around Biden fully appreciates the concern.

The caveats before this non-versation are all very similar. “He’s really done a remarkable job, given the circumstances,” goes a common one. The handwringing after the various caveats are set aside all has the same sound to it, too, with answers hidden in questions like: “Do you think he looks too old?”

Team Biden has tried to brush off the concern, pointing to the unpo[CENSORED]rity of the last two Democratic presidents at this same moment in their presidencies — before they went on to win re-election. At this time in 2011, Barack Obama was bruised by a protracted standoff with House Republicans over the debt ceiling and government spending levels. It was the low point of his re-election campaign. Bill Clinton’s first-term struggles and low point were a tad earlier, but in the spring of 1995, things were grim enough to spark talk of a Bill Bradley primary challenge.

And then there’s the one Republican president Team Biden is fond of using for age-related comparisons: Ronald Reagan. Like Reagan, Biden battled a nasty inflation issue at the start of his term. Like Reagan, Biden was the oldest president ever elected. Reagan had a brief moment in 1984 when it appeared the age issue could become a problem, but he joked his way out of it and did enough campaigning to reassure the country he was up to it.

Of course, given all we learned about Reagan’s health in his second term, perhaps there should have been more of a rigorous debate about his abilities, in hindsight.

Still, all three examples — Obama, Clinton and Reagan — are reassuring historical points that offer potential Biden parallels.

But one of the worst afflictions that can affect the political class and the Washington media class at times is “been there, done that disease.” Just because something happened a certain way the last time doesn’t mean things will turn out the same way this time. And yet, an overreliance on historical precedent can delude the normally intelligent mind.

At the end of the day, it could turn out that negative feelings about Trump and anger at the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision on abortion are enough to secure Biden’s re-election. It’s probably the most likely formula, given what we are witnessing in just about every election held since the Dobbs decision.

But while the power of the abortion issue might save Biden, it’s separate from the question of whether he owes the public a better picture of his ability to do the job.

So far, Team Biden has decided not to accept the premise of the age question. It publicly chalks it up to the media, even going so far as to say the media should stop asking about it in polls. There’s a naive belief among some Biden partisans that if you don’t mention his age, it won’t be an issue.

In the real world, concern about Biden’s age is an issue, and the voters are screaming it. Every reputable pollster who has asked has found more than 50% of registered Democrats want a primary campaign.

The numbers stem from a simple fact: A number of Biden supporters were never enamored with him but saw him as the safest way to get rid of Trump. When you look at these numbers, it’s as if Democrats are ready to hand Biden a gold watch and thank him for beating Trump, making Congress slightly more functioning and expanding NATO — and call it a legacy.

So what will it take to fire up Democrats for Biden? The best elixir for him could well be a primary challenge. The best way to disprove the age and ability issue is to run an active campaign, something Biden has yet to do.

This advice may be easier to give than receive. For one thing, Team Biden will remind any skeptic like me that running a “Rose Garden”-style campaign from his Delaware home in 2020 worked, though there’s a counterclaim about whether he would have won by more — or had longer coattails — with a more robust campaign.

Biden partisans also argue that his focus on democracy instead of inflation in the midterms was the right call, given his party’s overperformance against the GOP. Personally, I think history will remember the 2022 midterms more as the first evidence of the Dobbs fallout over abortion more than its being evidence of Trump’s unpo[CENSORED]rity in key swing states.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-wrestle-biden-conundrum-rcna119770