[Politics] The state elections to watch now for clues about what to expect in 2024

[Mr.SekA]

Before the 2024 presidential election truly kicks off, odd-year elections in several states can signal the political state of the nation, offering voter views on abortion and more.
 

The 2024 presidential election is already heating up. But before Iowa Republicans start lining up to caucus in January, voters across the country will send some major signals about what to expect in 2024 in a bevy of state and local elections.

There’s a lot of time for polling numbers and fundamentals to shift before November 2024. But who turns out to vote, which issues get big play and especially who voters pick in the biggest elections of 2023 could tell us a lot about the political state of the nation heading into next year.

Here's a rundown of what to watch for in the next few months as voters in several states select governors and state legislators, and cast ballots in a few important but more esoteric contests, too.

Kentucky governor's race
Gov. Andy Beshear is a rare Democrat still prospering in an ever-redder state.

Beshear boasts high approval ratings, according to Morning Consult tracking polls, and was widely praised for his response in the aftermath of tornadoes that killed 80 people in western Kentucky.

The odds seem to be in his favor as he faces Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who won a bruising primary in May with Donald Trump's endorsement.

A July poll found Beshear up 10 points over Cameron, but the final result is expected to be close in November: Beshear won his first term in 2019 by just 0.4 percentage points before Trump carried the state by 25 points in 2020.

The race is a test of Democratic po[CENSORED]rity in a tough state. Are voters willing (and happy enough with the economy) to stick with a governor they like, even with a "D" next to his name? Or is the combination of deep-red turf and a volatile political environment, plus an unpo[CENSORED]r Democrat in the White House, too much for the incumbent to handle?

Virginia state legislative elections
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's potential national ambitions are getting a lot of media attention, but they are closely linked to the state elections taking place this fall, halfway through Youngkin's term.

Republicans are hoping to protect their majority in the state House and flip the Democratic-controlled state Senate, which would open up room for Youngkin and Republicans to pass their legislative agenda in a state that had been trending left for more than a decade.

Youngkin has been campaigning around the state on his support for conservative measures, including forcing guidance on K-12 schools that limits protections for trans students and, perhaps most notably, supporting a 15-week abortion ban.

Yet Democrats hope to capitalize on opposition to Youngkin’s abortion stance to energize their base and win votes from independents. Virginia is the last state in the South that doesn’t have significant restrictions on abortion, a position Democrats vow to protect.

The race will test how powerful abortion remains as a political issue, after backlash to the overturning of Roe v. Wade helped Democrats pull out key wins in the 2022 midterms. Both parties will be watching how candidates talk about abortion and what appeals to voters as they look toward 2024.

Ohio abortion amendment election
The Ohio electorate will vote in November on an amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution — another election that will test the power of one of the top issues in national politics, and a key force in the upcoming presidential race.

But the amendment's path to the ballot box has already jumped some hurdles and is set to encounter a few more.

Republicans in the state — including Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for Senate — have sought to make it harder for the amendment to pass.

Video : Sen. Sherrod Brown: Ohio abortion rights win is a ‘victory for the country’ (msnbc.com) 

 

First, a Republican-backed measure to raise the threshold for passing a constitutional amendment from a simple majority to more than 60% failed in an August special election, keeping the threshold for the abortion amendment at 50% plus one.

Then, the Ohio Ballot Board, led by LaRose, approved the language that voters will see on their ballots in November, which is different from the language in the actual amendment.

The actual proposed amendment seeks to enshrine the right to abortion but also says that "abortion may be prohibited after fetal viability." The language approved for the ballot, however, uses the term "unborn child" and says the proposed amendment would "always allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of viability if, in the treating physician’s determination, the abortion is necessary to protect the pregnant woman’s life or health," according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.

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Read More :  The state elections to watch now for clues about what to expect in 2024 (nbcnews.com)