[Economics] China's GDP grew by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2023

[Draeno]

 

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2023, right in line with the most widespread forecasts among analysts, according to official data released today.

In addition, between January and March, the world's second largest economy advanced by 4.5% compared to the same period in 2022, thus exceeding expert forecasts, which pointed to a rise of around 4%.

The figures released by the National Statistics Office (ONE) represent a substantial improvement compared to the data from the last period of last year, when the Chinese economy did not experience any variation in quarter-on-quarter terms, although it did rebound by 2.9% in the year-on-year comparison. .

By sectors, the primary grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023; secondary, 3.3%, and tertiary, 5.4%.

Between January and March, the sum total of all goods and services produced in China reached 28.5 trillion yuan ($4.15 trillion).

The ONE pointed to the dismantling of the national 'zero covid' policy, which seriously weighed down the economy last year, as a favorable factor during the first quarter.

”The smooth transition (...) was achieved in a relatively short period of time, with production and demand experiencing a stable recovery, employment and prices generally holding steady, resident incomes continuing to rise, market expectations improved remarkably and the national economy had a good start (to the year)”, explained the institution.

According to the consultancy Capital Economics, the rapid return to normality after the 'zero covid' made it easier for the economy to recover faster than expected, something that, in fact, could be the first stone of 6% growth this year, which would greatly exceed the official objective of "around 5%".

"With consumer confidence recovering and credit growth accelerating, there is still room for an even greater upturn in activity in the coming months," says the consultancy, which cites data that point precisely to the strength with which the The economy was recovering at the end of the first quarter, it was maintained in April, more on the services front than on the industry front.

But not all experts are so optimistic: Louise Loo, from Oxford Economics, expects GDP to accelerate year-on-year in the second quarter due to last year's low comparative base due to lockdowns like the one in Shanghai but also warns of "pressures on the drop” in the last half of the year due to “the loss of momentum in consumption, the exhaustion of fiscal stimuli and a weaker demand from abroad”.

The ONE also published other official data for March today, such as industrial production (+3.9% year-on-year), retail sales (+10.6%) or the official unemployment rate in urban areas, which fell from 5.6% at 5.3%.

 

https://www.elespectador.com/economia/macroeconomia/el-pib-de-china-crecio-un-22-en-el-primer-trimestre-de-2023/