[Economics] Inflation expectations for March are 13.24% and 9% for December

[Draeno]

 

The Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) prepared by Fedesarrollo and the Colombian Stock Exchange provides an account of the expectations of analysts and portfolio managers on the main macroeconomic and financial variables.

These were the most relevant results of the measurement carried out in March 2023:

Annual Economic Growth: The forecast for 2023 was in a range between 0.7% and 1.2%, with 1.0% as the median response. The median forecast for 2024 was 2.3%, ranging from 1.8% to 2.7%.
Quarterly economic growth: for the first period of 2023 it stood at 2%, within a range between 1.3% and 2.3%. For the second quarter of 2023, analysts estimate growth of 1%.
Inflation: expectations for March were at 13.24% and for December 2023 at 9%.
Dollar: analysts expect the TRM to be between $4,706 and $4,838 for March, with $4,750 as the median response. Likewise, they foresee a TRM of $4,800 as of June 2023 and $4,755 as of December of the same year.
Interest rate: analysts expect it to increase to 13% in March 2023 and to remain until June 2023 and close this year at 11%.
Debt: the percentage of analysts who believe that the debt spread will increase in the next 3 months was 59.4%. For their part, 15.6% expect it to decrease, while the remaining 25% expect the spread to remain the same.
Investments: sociopolitical conditions were shown to be the most important factor when investing for analysts with 46.9% of the responses. The categories of monetary policy, other factors and economic growth followed with 18.8%, 15.6% and 9.4% of the responses, respectively.
Compared to the previous month, portfolio managers increased their preferences for local stocks and foreign bonds.
Stock market: in March, 43.3% of analysts expect an appreciation of the MSCI COLCAP index in the next three months.
Stocks: Bancolombia's preferred stock ranked as the most attractive among those that make up the MSCI COLCAP. They are followed, in their order, by the Ecopetrol share and the Bancolombia ordinary share.

Confidence in the equity market
Based on the Financial Opinion Survey (EOF), stock confidence indices on the MSCI COLCAP and the country's stock market are constructed.

These were the results:

Stock Market Confidence Index: Measures the proportion of analysts who expect a one-year appreciation of the MSCI COLCAP. In March, the index stood at 73.3%, evidencing a fall of 6.7 pps compared to the result of the previous month.
Resilience Index: Measures the proportion of analysts who expect the MSCI COLCAP to recover one day after a potential fall in it. In March, the index stood at 40.9%, which represents a fall of 1.2 pps with respect to the previous month.
Immunity index: measures the proportion of analysts who attribute a low probability of devaluation of the MSCI COLCAP in the next six months in the face of a sharp drop in international markets. In March, the index fell 8 pps compared to the previous month, settling at 37.5%.
Valuation Index: Measures the proportion of analysts who consider stock prices to be very low or fair relative to their fundamental value. In March, the index stood at 95.8%, which represents an increase of 0.8 compared to the previous month.

 

https://www.elespectador.com/economia/expectativas-de-inflacion-para-marzo-son-del-1324-y-del-9-para-diciembre/