[News] Another above-average wildfire season for 2022. How climate change is making fires harder to predict and fight.

[-Sethu]

Harlene Schwander didn’t need a second warning from firefighters as a blaze burned toward her home in Klamath River, California, in July. 

Schwander told the Associated Press she only had time to grab a few prized possessions before fleeing. “I left everything,” the artist said, including her art collection.

Dubbed the McKinney Fire, it killed four people and burned down a community center and tavern, among other homes and businesses. 

In Panama City, Florida, in March, Paul and Laurie Shuman watched glimpses of their home go up in flames through security video on his phone as a wildfire burned into their neighborhood.
 It was the second time they’d lost a home. Hurricane Michael destroyed the first in 2018.These two fires on opposite sides of the country are among 64,835 wildfires reported in the nation this year, as of Dec. 9, the most since 2017. Combined the fires burned more than 7.4 million acres. That’s higher than the 10-year average in both number of fires and acres burned. The 10-year average as of Dec. 9 was 54,091 fires and 7.1 million acres burned.
Scientists widely expect conditions to worsen in coming decades, the result of a combination of factors, including the warming climate, intense droughts, storms, forests laden with trees downed by hurricanes, urbanization and conflicts over how to manage land to prevent extreme fires. 

US fire season 2022 above average, but not as dire as predicted 
Meteorologists already see more more forecasts for above normal fire potential than they did 20 years ago, said Jim Wallmann, a meteorologist at the interagency fire center, and this year was no different.  
The early season outlook in March was dire. As bad as things were in some areas, Wallmann said, the year could have been worse.

Unexpected wet weather arriving sooner than normal helped curb bad fire seasons in New Mexico and Alaska. Fire season ramped up quickly in Alaska, burning 3 million acres, more than twice the normal, he said, but a wetter than expected summer brought a quick end to their season.  
A generally wetter than normal spring benefited the Northwest and Northern Rockies, he said, while conditions in the Central and Southern Plains were more active than normal. 

Climate change is making fire season worse
Over the past five years, wildfires have torched more than 38 million acres across the country, destroying thousands of homes and structures. Federal officials say extremes in drought and heat, fueled by climate change, are drying out forests in the west and Alaska and are the leading driver of an increase in fire weather.

In Alaska, wildfires are a natural part of the landscape in boreal forests and tundra, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the changes are bringing much larger, more frequent and more severe wildfires. It's shifting some forests from spruce trees to deciduous trees and thawing landscapes that increase the risk of drought and wildfires. By 2050, burned areas could increase dramatically as temperatures rise and snow seasons get shorter. 
In northern California in 2021, the Dixie Fire became the largest single wildfire in state history, burning about million acres and more than 700 homes. 

At times, its flames raced across the landscape at speeds at or beyond what fire behavior models could predict, said Jason Moghaddas, a professional forester with Spatial Informatics Group, who lost his own home to the fire. “When the wind picked up and pushed these fires, they were moving.”

Firefighters say a noticeable shift has taken place over the past decade to fire behavior “they’ve never seen before.” 
Predicting fire behavior is getting harder
Wildfires are "regularly behaving in extreme manners” that fire behavior models don’t capture, said Matthew Hurteau, professor and forest and fire ecologist at the University of New Mexico.

The fire models underestimate how dry conditions are, in part because conditions are hitting levels not previously projected until 2050, said Charles Maxwell, a research associate at Oregon State University. “When we start getting these juiced up droughts that are outside of historical conditions and aren't in any of these future climate projections, that's when things start to go out the window.”

Fueled by drought and warming temperatures, trees and forest debris are drier than ever and ready to burn more intensely, said Taro Pusina, a fire behavior analyst with Spatial Informatics, a California-based environmental think tank. Flames pick up and run faster. Fires burn hotter and longer.

A century of fire suppression — stopping fires and not allowing them to burn further — adds to the hazards, said Pusina, a U.S. Forest Service retiree who still consults on fires. Forest floors are stacked with decades of needle fall and dead limbs.

What's next? Renewed attention on prescribed burns 
Decades of research show an intentionally set, carefully planned and managed prescribed fire can reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfires. It can reduce debris buildup in forests, add nutrients to the landscape, minimize pests, improve wildlife habitat and promote wildflower blooming.

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