[Politics] Climate Change and Food Insecurity in Pakistan

[Dr@g0n]

In the past few years, extreme weather conditions have become commonplace in Pakistan. Heat waves, droughts, and floods have become a yearly endemic, affecting food and water security. Marginalized communities—such as the poor, elderly, and women—face the brunt of these consequences. Despite being one of the world’s lowest carbon emitters, Pakistan is among the top ten nations most vulnerable to extreme climate events. According to UNESCAP, Pakistan could lose more than 9 percent of its annual GDP due to climate change. Severe heat waves and untimely rains have also severely impacted Pakistan’s agricultural production. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that the frequency of such extreme weather conditions will increase in the future, causing a severe risk to Pakistan’s food security. The Asian Development Bank projects sharp declines in key food and cash crops (such as wheat, sugar cane, rice, maize, and cotton) in the coming years due to rising cultivating costs and climate change. Pakistan ranked 92nd out of 116 countries on the Global Hunger Index in 2021. Climate change and supply chain disruptions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are also likely to further aggravate the situation in the coming years. If timely measures are not taken to address food insecurity and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, Pakistan can face an existential threat. Extreme Climate Events Continue Unabated Climate change is a direct threat to Pakistan’s food production. Himalayan glaciers, which feed the country’s primary water source (the Indus Basin), have lost more mass since 2000 than in the entire twentieth century. For a country like Pakistan, where 23 percent of its GDP relies on the agriculture sector and the Indus Basin, this is a serious cause for concern. Beyond the risks of water shortages, extreme climate events are increasingly posing threats to livelihoods and agriculture. Each summer, heavy monsoon rainfall cause flash floods, property damage, and loss of life across the fertile plains of Punjab and Sindh. The consequences seem to worsen every year. This summer, historically high temperatures reached 51 degrees Celsius (approximately 123 degrees Fahrenheit) in Jacobabad, the highest temperature reported in South Asia. As the war in Ukraine halted wheat exports from “Europe’s breadbasket”, farmers in India estimated that the rise in temperature had destroyed 10-15 percent of their crops. With climate shocks like this expected to become only more frequent in the years ahead, Pakistan’s food production capacity may be hindered by extreme climate events.Pakistan’s total wheat demand—the primary source of fiber in the national diet and an important determinant of overall food security—is roughly 30.8 million tons. Heat waves in mid-March and increasing fertilizer costs led to an almost two million ton shortfall against a target of 28.9 million tons for this season. Supply and demand gaps are fulfilled by wheat imports in a volatile international market. This is a serious cause of concern for a country whose 40 percent of its po[CENSORED]tion faces chronic food insecurity. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has also increased food insecurity—39 percent of Pakistan’s wheat imports come from Ukraine, which remains the fifth largest wheat exporter globally. Russian blockades around the black sea have hampered Ukrainian wheat exports and global supply chains. This has impacted grain prices in the international market, with wheat flour prices increasing more than 60 percent since the onset of the war. Exports have recently resumed after being frozen for months which will lessen the risks of a global food crisis—still, continued volatility and longer-term climate strain threaten Pakistan’s food security.

link:https://southasianvoices.org/climate-change-and-food-insecurity-in-pakistan/