#Wittels- Posted March 24, 2022 Posted March 24, 2022 Analysts indicated that the estimated advance of 0.3% in February points to growth close to 1% in the first quarter. The Mexican economy advanced in February, according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which would link four months to the rise, and also points to a better performance than expected at the start of the year. The Inegi reported that a monthly increase of 0.3 percent in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) is anticipated in the second month, and an advance of 0.5 percent was estimated for January, a better figure than the previous forecast, of a drop of 0.1 percent. With this figure, the economy would add four consecutive months of expansion, its longest positive streak since the end of 2020. At an annual rate, the indicator indicates that the Mexican economy advanced 2.8 percent in February, the most significant increase in six months. positive report Analysts from Monex indicated that, if the figures in the report materialize, they constituted good news, since with this data the risk that the Mexican economy will register a contraction in the first quarter of the year despite the situation was practically eliminated, and they agreed in that this figure would point to a growth of 1 percent in the first quarter. "A result like this could lead to an upward revision of the forecasts, although it remains to be seen how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affects the performance of the economy," he added. "The IOAE published by INEGI shows a more or less positive outlook for Mexico's economic activity in the first quarter," said Gabriela Siller, director of analysis at Banco Base, on her Twitter account. He added that these estimates imply that the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter could be around 1 percent per quarter. “The estimates are consistent with some resilience at the beginning of the year despite a relatively adverse environment. However, some elements could weaken this pace, including higher pressures on prices and the continuation of interruptions to supply chains”, Banorte analysts indicated. They added that with the revision of the January data it would be confirmed that the economy withstood the impact of more omicron infections, although to a lesser extent than in previous waves. “However, we believe that activity continued to be impacted by other factors, including price pressures. This, together with the extension of problems in the supply chains, could compromise the development of the activity going forward”, they pointed out. Julio A. Santaella, former president of INEGI, said that with the results of the IOAE, economic activity would still not reach its pre-pandemic levels, and would be 1.4 percent below the figure for February 2020. difficult recovery Alain Jaimes, an economic analyst at Signum Research, said that the increase in productive activity could be due to a relatively easy basis for comparison, so a weak recovery of the Mexican economy is predicted for this 2022. He stressed that the sluggishness that can be seen in the services is worrying, despite a greater relaxation in the healthy distance measures implemented as a result of the health crisis due to Covid-19. "The sluggishness that services would register is worrying today that the confinement measures have been greatly relaxed, so the dynamics of this sector would be confirming a stagnation in the economy," said recovery. Jacobo Rodríguez, chief economist at BW Capital, authorized that the greatest boost in the economy comes from tertiary activities, however, he has shown inconsistency in previous data and an economic weakness is foreseen this year. “It will be important for this trend to continue since we have observed inconsistency in the performance of economic activity and expectations are of weakness due to the impact that the economic slowdown in the United States and the acceleration of inflammation would generate,” he will highlight. Link: https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/2022/03/23/economia-apunta-a-mejor-desempeno-al-inicio-de-ano/
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