[Economics] Can Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe?

[#Wittels-]

The war can alter the flow of energy that arrives through the gas pipelines that cross Ukraine

Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter and by far Europe's largest gas supplier. Part of that energy goes through gas pipelines that are in Ukraine. Until now, the war has not changed this and gas is still reaching European countries at the same rate. But Putin has the power to turn that tap on or off. What can happen?

In the video that accompanies this news item, Ignacio Fariza, editor of the Economy section of EL PAÍS specializing in energy, outlines the three possible scenarios. The first, the one that has the best chance of being fulfilled, at least in the short term, is that the bombs do not cause damage to the pipes that cross Ukraine and Putin does not turn off the tap. In a second scenario, Moscow could cut the amount of gas flowing through pipelines to the west. If this happened, things would get complicated in the EU, always with the threat of supply cuts in central Europe, which is highly dependent on Russian gas. In the third scenario, Putin completely closes the tap on the European Union and focuses on China to sell the excess gas. It is, by far, the most dangerous for Europe, because it would run out of supply and, at the same time, Moscow could mitigate the economic blow with a new source of foreign exchange.

 

What does each of the possible scenarios depend on? What is the power of Russia to change the rules of the game? What consequences will each of the possible options have on Europe? All these questions are answered in the video.

Finally, how would a change in supply affect Spain? Whatever happens, even in the case of a drastic cut of the Russian faucet, the supply is guaranteed. Why? Because the dependence on gas in Spain does not really depend on Russia, but regasification could be increased in the network of ports adapted to receive fuel by ship from third countries.

 

Link: https://elpais.com/economia/2022-03-02/puede-rusia-cortar-el-suministro-de-gas-a-europa.html