[News] New hope.. British expert blows up pessimistic expectations about Corona

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In Britain, expectations speak of difficult days with the increase in infections with the Corona virus, and it came to a minister in the government of Boris Johnson to warn of a “very harsh” week.
But one expert plays down these pessimistic forecasts and paints a less bleak picture.

And the British newspaper, “Daily Mail”, says that the expectations of a professor of risk management at the University of Bristol, Philip Thomas, are always accurate in relation to the Corona pandemic.

And last July, when British authorities lifted the majority of coronavirus restrictions, and many thought it was a reckless move, Thomas wrote that Britain would not see a big wave of the epidemic.

Thomas stated that he was confident of the results because of a mathematical model he had prepared at the university to chart and predict the epidemic.

The results, according to “Daily Mail”, were impressively accurate, while government advisers warned of a rocketing rise in injuries as a result of the easing of restrictions, Thomas said that injuries would decrease, which is what happened.

Currently, many in Britain are talking about a difficult period ahead in the face of the epidemic, and among them is the British Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, who said that this week will be more harsh in his country with the increase in daily infections.

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And Britain is not alone, as there are talk in several regions of the world about a new wave of the Corona epidemic, as in the case of Russia.

It is expected that Britain is on its way to recording an average of 100,000 infections per day in the coming weeks, and this is a very large number, as compared to an average of 70,000 injuries per day at the peak of the winter wave that occurred at Christmas, late last year.

These pessimistic expectations prompted calls for tightening restrictions on masks, social distancing and even imposing general closures, and Morocco suspended flights with Britain due to the increasing injuries there.

The current infection rate is 40,000 per day in England.

Big changes happened

As for Philip Thomas, he believes that the numbers do not tell the whole story, especially in the case of the current expectations, stressing that there have been great changes since the difficult days of last winter.

He noted that vaccinations in Britain broke the chain between infection and the rate of serious injuries and deaths.

And he talked about a study conducted by the Italian National Institute of Health that concluded that people who have been fully vaccinated against the Corona virus are unlikely to die of the disease, unless they are elderly or suffer from chronic diseases.

The reasons that prompted the imposition of closures in Britain were due to the protection of the health system from collapsing and flooding it with huge numbers of infected people.

He said that the solution is for the British government to proceed with the booster dose program, even though it is slow. I see no justification for new restrictions.

And the British Minister of Health is pushing to grant the third dose to those who are eligible to receive it, and the expert said that the Minister of Health is right in that.

60 thousand

The British expert says that, as he imagines, the injuries will not exceed 60,000 per day, which is much less than the pessimistic expectations.

He expected the most affected group to be secondary school students, who have not been vaccinated to the same extent as adults and it is unlikely that serious infections will be recorded among this group.