[Economics] To overcome the “Corona shock” .. 3 factors impede the recovery of the global economy

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The global economy has begun to look forward to new horizons after the gradual global recovery from the Corona pandemic, which led to an improvement in growth expectations, especially during the current year 2021, which is believed to be in which the global economy will witness the strongest post-recession recovery in 80 years, according to World Bank reports, which expected an acceleration The pace of growth to reach 5.6 percent.
At a time when the global economy is seeking to overcome the “Corona shock” by testing stronger levels of growth, supported by the progress made in confronting the virus, especially in terms of vaccines, and with the return of work and the opening of factories and companies, three violent threats lead to slowing the recovery of the world economy, which enhances Differing estimates reinforce the two states of anxiety and uncertainty about the path of recovery, especially in light of the slowdown in the United States and China in particular now.

The first threat or factor is related to the energy crisis in Europe, and its repercussions on the world. Secondly, the high rates of inflation around the world. This is along with the third factor related to supply disruptions (internal/domestic and external) that many economies suffer from, including major economies around the world.

Mustafa Abu Zeid, Director of the Egypt Center for Economic and Strategic Studies, considers these three factors (high inflation, the energy crisis, in addition to the disruption of supplies), and they certainly have a direct impact on the growth of the global economy, and this was reflected in the latest reports of the International Monetary Fund, compared to its previous expectations that were You talk about a faster recovery.

global growth

The economist pointed out in exclusive statements to "Sky News Arabia" that "after the fluctuation in fuel supplies, and with the rise in inflation rates, these factors will mainly affect the achievement of the target in global growth," citing the crisis in Britain, which will affect the global economy. The pace of business in economic activities, which is reflected in the GDP and thus on achieving lower growth rates.

The economist points to the crisis of supply disruptions in some countries, and says that the lack of supply versus demand has a direct impact on the rise in inflation rates in this way. At the same time, the economist notes that this slowdown will prevail in the short term.

But at the same time, he believes that countries will resort to protectionist measures, and there will be national strategies to address those effects, ruling out the possibility of turning the energy crisis in Europe into a global crisis, "a temporary crisis that European countries are working to secure energy supplies faster to solve the crisis... The crisis has repercussions on supply chains and various risks, if they exacerbate, they may not be less severe than the effects of Corona on economies.”

In the medium and long term, the director of the Egypt Center for Economic and Strategic Studies, at the conclusion of his statements to "Sky News Arabia", explains that "the global economy has not fully recovered from the repercussions of Corona, and the scene now depends on the economic policies that will be followed by countries, and for all A country has a special economic methodology according to its priorities and vision, which determines the speed of its recovery.

The World Bank, in its report issued last August, had talked about the “disparity” of the expected recovery of the global economy in 2021 between different regions, between strong growth rates in major countries, while developing economies are expected to be delayed.

In the middle of last week, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, revealed that the fund had revised its forecast for the growth rates of the global economy in 2021, expecting a slight decrease from the 6 percent that it had previously set.

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global crisis

While the economist Sayed Khader believes that the “energy crisis” in Europe may turn into a global crisis if it is not addressed, it is now seen as a “temporary crisis” in connection with the winter season and increased demand, while if governments do not take measures to overcome this crisis and rely With different alternatives, the problem may aggravate, which will reflect on the global economy as a whole.

He explained in exclusive statements to "Sky News Arabia" that central banks should adopt various economic tools and plans to protect the economy from the expected consequences of the current crises, highlighting the US economy, which faces a number of problems reflected in economic indicators, especially those related to inflation.

He stresses that the aforementioned factors threaten the global economy with a significant slowdown, adding to them that the economy has not fully recovered from the repercussions of Corona, and there is still ambiguity about the pandemic and its development in light of the mutated “Delta” and the extent of the danger and upcoming repercussions that are reflected in one way or another on the economy. negative.

With these data, the economist points out that "expectations of rapid growth in 2021 are now changing in terms of expectations of slower growth in light of the crises in the world economy."