[News] They design a prediction tool to know the evolution of COVID-19 in critically ill patients

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Researcher Maximino Redondo in conjunction with the team from the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Malaga and the Institute of Biomedical Research of Malaga, have designed a prediction tool to predict the evolution of COVID-19 infection in critically ill patients.

The study began in March and was funded by the Carlos III Health Institute for the value of 141,500 euros. However, according to the Spanish portal 20 minutes, the study once again received financial aid of at least 56,000 euros, but this time from the Junta de Andalucía to include the development of this future predictive tool for new biological and genetic exposure variables Specifically, viral load and the expression of genes associated with the immune response and inflammation.

This project was born within the Network for Research in Health Services in Chronic Diseases (RETIC REDISSEC), in which several hospitals from four autonomous communities intervene, with the coordination of Dr. Susana García Gutierrez, from Hospital Galdakao de Vizcaya. The UMA R + D + i group, together with the collaboration of the Costa del Sol Hospital, participates as Andalusian Coordinator of this Network.

According to Redondo, principal investigator of this work and professor at the Faculty of Medicine, patients with poor evolution develop immunity and inflammation alterations.

"We intend to study more than 600 genes related to these two processes", explains the researcher.

With regard to viral load, the research coordinator points out that the importance of infection cannot be questioned, since it may have some weight as a predictor of evolution, "especially if it is combined with other clinical-analytical factors" , Add.

"Patients with poor evolution develop alterations in immunity and inflammation. We intend to study more than 600 related genes," he explains. To do this, predictive variables of clinical deterioration will be identified throughout the COVID-19 disease, such as the appearance or worsening of respiratory failure, respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis, systemic inflammatory response syndrome ( SIRS), septic shock and even the death rate.

As a final proposal, the scientific team proposes to create a scale of risk of admission to critical care units and mortality of patients with these symptoms. For this, they study the association between the time that symptoms begin until the start of treatment, and they also measure the onset and appearance of clinical deterioration.

On the other hand, it is intended to evaluate how pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment works. Within this step, the objective is to also take into account the sociodemographic, clinical and laboratory variables of patients affected by COVID-19 who have required hospital care.

A total of 2,500 patients will be analyzed on this scale.

According to the UMA researcher, the fundamental benefit of this study will be to be able to anticipate severe cases and to be able to administer earlier treatment, which would lead to a better evolution and probably a shorter hospital stay.

Although they have one year to develop the line of research funded by the Junta de Andalucía, they already have some preliminary results with the patients analyzed so far.

Among the results obtained, more than 1,500, which reflect that some analytical parameters such as LDH (lactate-dehydrogenase), CRP (C-reactive protein) and number of platelets are predictors of poor evolution of the disease.