Intel: 10nm Is Going To Be Less Productive Than 22nm, 10+ Will Be Pushed Out This Year

[Mark-x]

Intel's CFO George Davis presented at the Morgan Stanley's TMT conference and had a refreshingly honest and candid discussion with analysts about the 10nm process. The company revealed that it's planning to push out 10+ process this year but also warned that while it is almost certainly in the 10nm era now, 10nm as a node "just isn't going to be the best node that Intel has ever had" and will actually be less productive than 22nm. That said, George mentioned that Intel has been completely unaffected by the Coronavirus (considering it's based primarily in the US) and still has excess demand waiting to be fulfilled.

 

This is something that enthusiasts have discussed for a long time while Intel's 10nm was stuck in limbo a year or so ago. Because 7nm is an EUV-based process, it will act as a sort of reset in difficulty and will actually be much easier to achieve (relatively) than the costly 10nm process. A lot of people suggested that Intel should just move directly to 7nm but since the transition to 7nm is not affected by the transition to 10nm and considering the company has ample cash, it makes sense for 10nm to be a sort of transitionary node while Intel gathers its bearings again.

 

The good news for investors here is the dispelling of uncertainty and knowing exactly where Intel stands: 10nm is going to be out properly this time, but don't expect it to be as productive as 14nm. This can probably be interpreted as not only the incremental performance gains that you get by shifting to a lower node but also the financial profile (10nm is definitely going to cost Intel a pretty penny). Another silver lining here is the company remains on track to transition to 7nm by 2021 and has been relatively unaffected by the global slowdown the Coronavirus catalyzed.