By 2060, the irreversible urban expansion would increase the temperature in some parts of the country by up to three degrees

[Inkriql]

If the trend of disorderly and uncontrolled urban growth continues in the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico (ZMVM), by 2060 the temperature will increase to three degrees Celsius, as revealed by a study conducted by the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
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Regions such as Tláhuac and Xochimilco, as well as municipalities located north of the metropolitan area, such as Zumpango, could experience this rise in temperature, in addition to the increase due to climate change. According to scientists from the National Laboratory of Sustainability Sciences (LANCIS), the Institute of Ecology (IE), the urbanization models and maps projected for 2060 "light the red spotlights", "and in some areas more care should be taken because of the already existing vulnerability conditions ”.

Yosune Miquelajauregui Graf, a LANCIS researcher leading the study, said that in 2014, the ZMVM had 2,287 square kilometers (INEGI), and “under a scenario without growth restriction, it could reach 6,459 square kilometers by 2060, area 282% higher "

Urban growth over the upper basins could also have effects on water availability. “It could increase the surface runoff of rainwater; that is, there would be less infiltration to groundwater and, consequently, less recharge of them, ”he explained.

According to the projections, some high basins would triple or quadruple their urban coverage, a situation that is aggravated if some of them are considered to include conservation land, such as the municipalities of Tlalpan and Xochimilco, in Mexico City.

The projection in which they explore urban growth paths without restriction, there is an alteration of federal and state protected natural areas and conservation land, since the urban area has no physical or legal restrictions to expand.

Specialists project that by 2060 areas such as Tláhuac, Chalco and Xochimilco could have two or three degrees Celsius more temperature; in the same situation would be Cuautitlán, Texcoco and Atenco. "It is necessary to assess how the increase in temperature could affect the occurrence of forest fires, water availability, po[CENSORED]tion health and urban vulnerability," said Graf.

Similarly, they evaluated the water response of the upper watersheds based on the projected change in coverage, that is, the amount of rain that would drain into low areas. As an effect of urban growth, in general it would drain up to three times more water than at present, which would mean less infiltration of the water tables and the impact on the availability of this resource.

Under this scenario, it was determined that the type of coverage most susceptible to loss is forestry. "From 2014 to 2060 agricultural coverage in some of the southwestern basins of Mexico City could be reduced up to 14 percent, while forest cover could decrease seven percent," added the specialist.

With these results, the need arises to evaluate other urban growth scenarios, generate technical capacities for analysis and integration of information, as well as encourage public policies aimed at more sustainable states. “The Metropolitan Zone of the Valley of Mexico is a whole and should be seen that way, otherwise it will be difficult to mitigate the effects of urban growth and adapt to them,” he warned.

The expert and her collaborators have already presented their results to different agencies of the government of Mexico City with a good response. “One of the objectives of the MEGADAPT model is that it functions as a tool that supports decision making. In the future we would also be interested in talking with the Mexican authorities, because in all cases robust and informed decisions must be made, ”he concluded.