Autocar's guide to what will happen in 2019

[Sa__Mi]

But what about the things we don't know? The following might not be set in stone, but Autocar's writers have predicted what you can expect from the automotive industry in 2019.

James Dyson will spark a revolution 

Inventor James Dyson is promising a revolutionary electric car on sale in 2021, which makes 2019 a critical year as he readies a new British test track and Singapore manufacturing plant for operations. 

The Singapore factory is due to be finished in 2020 and a first sight of at least a sketch of the Dyson EV must be a strong possibility this year, most likely in the last quarter. 

As a new market entrant, Dyson can reveal details of his new car without the risk of adversely affecting sales of an existing model, although the company will be acutely aware of revealing too much to rivals. 

Dyson has a history of defending its designs and R&D spending in the courts and six years ago accused Bosch – whose automotive division is one of the world’s biggest car parts suppliers – of stealing secrets of patented high-speed brushless motors. 

Since then, Dyson has been locked in a legal battle at the European Court over energy labelling of vacuum cleaners, again putting him at loggerheads with Bosch’s home products division. 

However, the need to prepare car buyers for the surprise of a Dyson-designed electric car may well override concerns over intellectual property and encourage the British inventor to reveal outline details of the new car 12 or 18 months ahead of its launch. Julian Rendell 

Brexit? Who knows… but it won’t be simple

Regardless of your political view, we can all agree that Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union hasn’t exactly been smooth or predictable. And events unfolding in Westminster and Brussels mean that, at the time of writing, nobody really knows what will happen. 

Which, for multinational car firms with tight production chains that cross the UK/EU border repeatedly, is a massive dose of wholly unwelcome uncertainty in an already turbulent market. And multinational car firms hate uncertainty. 

When/if Britain leaves, relations between the two will be governed by a withdrawal agreement – if the UK parliament approves it in a vote, which may or may not take place mid-January. Should that not happen, a new deal may be agreed, or Britain will leave without one. Or delay Brexit. Or stage a second referendum. 

Crystal clear so far, right? 

If Britain leaves with a withdrawal agreement, things should continue pretty much as they are until 31 December 2020, by which point a full trade deal will or won’t have been agreed. If Britain leaves without a deal, cross-border relations might be covered by World Trade Organization rules or some other yet-to-be-determined system (rock paper scissors, anyone?). And that may or may not cause huge disruption to manufacturing industries – including the car industry – with short-timeline production chains that rely on tariff- and delay-free movement across the border. 

It’s not just industry that could be affected: you might need an International Driving Permit to drive in the EU, have to sort different car insurance, or likely need a visa waiver to enter European countries. 

Simple, right? Well, no. Frankly, trying to predict Brexit is an impossible task – which is exactly the problem for those people and firms whose livelihoods could depend on how and when it happens. What we can predict is that, whatever form Brexit takes, it will have a major impact on the British car industry. 

Probably. James Attwood

UK plants will be under threat

Closely linked to Brexit – will 2019 be the year that a major car plant shuts in the UK? There are several possible candidates, but history suggests any closure plan will develop over a couple of years and is likely to be leaked well in advance – given the cataclysmic effect on jobs, the supply chain and Westminster politics. So we wouldn’t expect the doors to be shuttered on any major plant in 2019, but as the detail of the UK’s future trade agreement is negotiated from April (probably…), any increase in the PR volume around a plant closure is noise we really don’t want to hear this year. Julian Rendell

The on/off trade war between the US and China and the US and the EU is already influencing global car production. For example, Geely-owned Volvo has announced lower volumes of exports to China of the S60 from a new US plant in Charleston as a response to sales dragged down by higher import duties. As a result, a question hangs over US investment for the XC90, with sales in China under threat. 

Meanwhile, BMW is increasing production in China of the X3, a model that previously was globally sourced from South Carolina. Others – like Ford, which exports the Mustang to China – are remaining cagey about their response to the tariff war. In the US, this has seen duty increase to 25% to match China, while the Asian country has responded by hiking its duty to 40%. 

This tit-for-tat might actually help European car makers because China, to spite the US, reduced tariffs on cars made everywhere outside the US to 15%. We can expect more upping-and-downing of tariffs during 2019 as the two superpowers manoeuvre around each other with the Trump administration even thinking about detonating its own 40% tariff on Chinese imports. Julian Rendell

New diesels will come back

Expect the harsh attitude from new car buyers towards diesel to soften once the penny drops that, under the new WLTP emissions regulations, the latest diesels produce cleaner real-world exhaust emissions than older petrol cars. Po[CENSORED]r medium and large SUVs rely on frugal diesel engines to remain viable from the point of view of fuel costs and also CO2 emissions. Diesels generally will always be more economical than petrol cars or petrol hybrids for motorway users. Buyers who have switched away from diesel may find the real-world economy too compelling to not want to return to it. Jesse Crosse