[News] Is the U.S. Losing in Vietnam? Russia, North Korea and China Are Gaining.

[BUTA]

U.S. allies worry that American volatility and Russian outreach and arms sales, in particular, are driving Vietnam into a new phase.

American officials believed nearly two years ago that Vietnam was about to buy C-130 military transport planes from the United States. In interviews, they said the sale would be a powerful blow to Russia, Hanoi’s main military partner, and a clear sign that geopolitical swing states like Vietnam were tilting toward Washington, not Moscow or Beijing.

At Vietnam’s defense expo last December, the country’s prime minister even climbed aboard a visiting C-130, inspecting the cockpit as U.S. commanders watched. A YouTube video seemed to capture a Vietnamese deputy defense minister telling colleagues that three (or maybe 13) planes had been ordered. But then nothing happened.

Instead, Vietnam has stepped up purchases of Russian military equipment, routing around U.S. sanctions meant to cut off business with Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Leaked documents and interviews with Vietnamese and Western officials all point to a reinvigorated relationship — a return to distrusting America and relying on Russia, with a surge of high-level meetings and previously undisclosed purchases and partnerships.

The evidence reviewed by The New York Times includes records of Vietnam ordering dozens of complex air-defense systems, and high-tech upgrades for submarines, while seeking fleets of new aircraft. Russia and Vietnam have also continued to expand military-technical cooperation through joint ventures. At least one company in Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital, was added to U.S. and European sanctions and export-control lists in 2024 and 2025, suggesting the business was contributing to Russia’s fight against Ukraine.

Most of the transactions and collaborations with Russia have avoided sanctions enforcement, partly with payment systems hidden in other companies, and because the United States let a lot go, believing it was Vietnam’s partner of choice. But Moscow is getting bolder. While many of the secret purchases began during the Biden administration, they appear to be accelerating with President Trump in power — as are public displays of close relations.

Russia’s state news agency announced last month that a newly ratified protocol with Vietnam would let debts for military equipment be paid in Russian rubles.

“The law was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin,” a Russian statement said.

Vietnamese officials say that their country is simply being pragmatic. Russia has been supplying most of their weapons for decades; Vietnam’s diversification process takes time. But after a pause prompted by Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 — and a drive toward other partners, which the Biden administration had encouraged — Vietnam is back in business with Moscow in ways that could reshape security calculations across Asia.

Much of the region now worries that President Trump, who will be in South Korea this week for the APEC summit meetings, is pushing Hanoi further away, making Asia more dangerous by alienating not just allies but also newer partners.

 

 

Exasperation with the United States has been building in Vietnam. Blow by blow, it has risen with the elimination of American aid for clean energy and H.I.V. prevention, up-and-down tariffs, indifference to requests for a leader-to-leader meeting, a Trump family golf development near Hanoi that has enraged local residents, and surprises like the new tax on U.S. imports of furniture — one of Vietnam’s priority industries for growth.

It has been 50 years since the war with America ended, but Vietnam is still dominated by factions that either distrust or welcome the West. What Mr. Trump is now doing, according to analysts and officials, is empowering America skeptics and angering America fans.

Near the end of the Biden administration, Vietnam worried about being seen as too close to the United States. Now, in private meetings, Vietnam’s leaders have expressed shock at what they described as a confusing and unfair reversal under the Trump administration that disregards Vietnam’s embrace of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

“The unpredictability of Trump’s policies has made Vietnam very skeptical about dealing with the United States,” said Nguyen The Phuong, a security analyst at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “It’s not only trade but the difficulty of reading his mind and actions.”

 

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