The threat from Siberia could lead to a climate catastrophe

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The threat from Siberia could lead to a climate catastrophe

The ever-frozen soil layer covers a huge area, estimated to contain 1500 billion tonnes of carbon

 

 

 

 

The ever-frozen ice in Canada, Alaska and Siberia is melting faster, threatening the world, because huge amounts of methane are trapped beneath the frozen surface of the soil. Greenhouse gas is many times more active than carbon dioxide.

Scientists have long feared that climate change, which raises temperatures in the Arctic and subarctic regions at twice the rate of the rest of the world, will release methane under the frozen soil layer and completely change the Earth's climate. So far, however, it has been supposed that this process will be gradual and humanity will have time to react.

This week, however, a post in the Nation raised the alarm. Current climate models overlook the fact that in many cases, the icy terrain literally disintegrates, sometimes within days.

"Although the freezing of the ever-frozen soil will occur in less than 20 percent of the area, this changes the carbon footprint by about 50 percent," said Merrit Turetsky, head of the Boulder Institute for Arctic and Alpine Studies. , Colorado.

The ever-frozen layer is composed of soil, sand, rocks and crushed ice. The methane in it comes from the numerous plants and animals that once inhabited the Arctic. About 5 million years ago, the climate in most of the region was rather temperate. Even the northernmost parts of the land, now occupied by the tundra, were covered with dense forests of pine and spruce.

The last ice age, which lasted about 100,000 years, is part of a cycle that began about 2.7 million years ago. It is related to the rise of species adapted to the colder climate, such as the mammoths that appeared about 1 million years ago.

The end of the last glacial period about 12,000 years ago gave impetus to humans as the dominant species on Earth and led to the disappearance of many large animals, including mammoths.

They were driven north by the onset of man and the replacement of the forest steppes with climate warming. It is estimated that the remains of some 150 million mammoths are buried in Siberia alone.

The ever-frozen soil layer covers a huge area - almost as large as the United States and Canada. It is estimated to contain about 1,500 billion tonnes of carbon, which is twice the amount in the atmosphere and three times more than that emitted by mankind since the beginning of the industrial era.

Under current climate models, defrosting Arctic soil will release 60 to 100 billion tonnes of carbon by 2300. However, given the rapid melting of part of the frozen layer, the rate and amount of greenhouse gas emissions increase dramatically.

One tonne of carbon is equivalent to 3.67 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2). Thus, according to current projections, the molten amount of melting of the ever-frozen soil layer would be equal to the greenhouse gas emissions from humanity for about 8 years at the current rate.

The problem with current forecasts is that they suggest that carbon sequestration in the Arctic will be gradual.

In many places, however, defrosting will be quick and dramatic.

"Forests can become lakes in just a month, landslides can occur without any warning. In the ground, holes filled with methane can be opened, swallowing whole snowmobiles, ”warns Merit Turetsky.

In fact, if greenhouse gas emissions from human activity continue to increase as they have for the next 50 years, probably up to 70% of the ever-frozen soils will thaw, completely changing the climate of the Earth.