Did Ankara not go too far in Syria

[[MC]Ronin[MC]]

Did Ankara not go too far in Syria

Turkey faces important issues in Syria.

 

 

 

 

 

After six Turkish soldiers were killed earlier this week and nine others were injured by gunfire by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Turkish foreign minister has retaliated. A little later, Turkish forces attacked Syrian bases, killing 76 soldiers (earlier figures indicated 35). This, as noted by a number of observers, is the most serious confrontation between Ankara and Assad in recent years and is likely to expand and intensify unless Russia and Turkey take steps to de-escalate. At the moment, however, such a scenario is unlikely, and over the last two days, as Syrian government forces advanced toward the city of Idlib, ignoring the threats made by Turkey, the Turkish army sent tanks, soldiers and military equipment to observation bases in the province of the same name.

Idlib province is the main collision area, although there is a front line in Aleppo province as well. In Idlib, however, there are between 50 and 70,000 rebels, not counting the more extreme Caucasian and Turkmen factions based in the mountains around the border with Turkey and the Syrian coast. Much of the Idlib rebels received or received Turkish support, and some of them, especially around the border towns of Al Bab, Afrin and Azaz, were united in the pro-Turkish formation of the Syrian National Army. The formation actively participated in Turkish intervention in northern Syria against PKK units in the area, and fighters from the same group were sent fighters to Libya in support of the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli. In short, northern Syria is an important field of projection for Turkish interests, essential to creating a buffer zone around the troubled Syrian border and, at the same time, a training camp for forces that Ankara can use when needed. Any offensive, attempt to seize territory or a political quake is to the detriment of those interests and Turkey cannot allow it.

Russia and Turkey signed an agreement in September 2018, according to which Turkey is addressing the disarmament of troubled militias for Russia and Assad, including the Caucasus in the mountains around Latakia and Turkmen formations, some of which received support from Ankara. Turkey, Iran and Russia also have the right to build bases around the Idlib province under the agreements, with Turkey currently having about 12 such bases, some of which are surrounded by Assad forces. Under the 2018 agreement, Assad will refrain from attacking Idlib, but in reality throughout 2019 there have been high-tide offensives, with the Syrian government's primary goal of regaining control of the important M4 and M5 highways. It is these highways that are leading the worst battles at the moment, causing the displacement of nearly one million people. These people are currently flocking to Syria's border with Turkey, with no other asylum options.

In the end, Russia stepped up its pressure and allowed the Assad regime to launch an offensive to Idlib, home to nearly 4 million people displaced from other parts of Syria. Assad's forces conquered strategic areas, literally turning cities such as Maarat an Numan (about 100,000 before the offensive) into ghostly ones. Assad's battles in Idlib also involved Iranian forces, most notably the pro-Iranian Fatemiun militias, made up of Iranians and Afghans. In the fighting, rebels killed several commanders of these militias, and in the province of Aleppo killed four Russian Special Forces officers who assisted Assad's forces.

Turkey, which thought it could stop the offensive and refugee wave by diplomatic means, appears to be losing control of diplomatic and military moves. In an unprecedented statement since 2016, when the two countries "mended" their relationship as a result of a Russian fighter jet that entered its airspace, Turkish President Recep Erdogan said, "Russia says it is fighting terrorists. Who are these terrorists? These are civilians trying to protect their homes. "Erdogan accused Russia of failing to comply with the Astana and Sochi agreements, which guarantee Assad not launching an offensive with Russian backing. Erdogan also deployed an ultimatum to Assad to regain his strength beyond the control areas around Turkish bases in Idlib.