With Donald Trump as President, Here's What Will Happen to the U.S. Economy

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Donald Trump has had a lot of success in business, but how will he be for the economy as president? Here's how his economic policies will play out.

This story was originally published in October 2015. Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States, and it is worth taking a look at what the U.S. economy might look like under his proposed policies. Also, check out our Donald Trump Stock Portfolio, a list of 15 stocks that could do well under a President Trump. The introduction and the sections below on immigration, taxes and trade have been updated.

There's no denying Trump has done a good job of making himself rich -- he's worth somewhere between $4.5 billion and $10 billion, depending who you ask. Can he make the rest of America rich, too?

Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States on Tuesday and in his victory speech at the New York Hilton promised to focus on economic growth when he is sworn in next January. "We have a great economic plan," he said. "We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world."

On the campaign trail, Trump admitted the economy wasn't something he looked forward to tackling. In a January interview with "Good Morning America," he offered up a bleak assessment and added that, in terms of fixing it, it's a task he'd rather skip.

"We're in a bubble," he said. "And, frankly, if there's going to be a bubble popping, I hope they pop before I become president because I don't want to inherit all this stuff. I'd rather it be the day before rather than the day after, I will tell you that."

In an April interview with the Washington Post, Trump reiterated his doomsday view of the economy, suggesting we might be headed for recession. But this time around, he appeared more open to the idea of his being in charge of finding remedies. "I can fix it. I can fix it pretty quickly," he said. And more recently, he maligned the Federal Reserve for creating what he says is a "false economy."

As president, he will now be tasked with accelerating American economic growth and fixing its problems.

Trump was the 2016 election cycle's most riveting figure. He initially focused his attention on immigration reform, calling for a wall to be built between Mexico and the United States and demanding the deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants. He has wavered on that last point as of late. 

He later rolled out other policies and positions: a major tax code overhaul; repeal and replace Obamacare; renegotiate or "break" NAFTA; stop hedge funds from "getting away with murder" on taxes; reforming the Veteran's Administration; and impose import tariffs as high as 35%. All while keeping the deficit in check, growing the economy and leaving entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security untouched. Immigration remains a major pillar of his campaign, and he has moved on to the question of Muslim immigration as well. He has laid out a plan to make Mexico pay for the wall, too.

Trump has made plenty of enemies along the way as well, including but limited to fellow GOP contenders Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, Fox News journalist Megyn Kelly, the media in general and even the Pope.

Those who fear Trump's plans should find common cause with those who love them: "I'm not sure how much of what he actually says today will be his positions a year from now," said Michael Busler, professor of finance at Stockton University.

Trump's own campaign has suggested he is playing "a part" to garner votes.

While Trump certainly has some grandiose ideas -- and equally lofty rhetoric to accompany them -- deciphering the exact nature of his economic policies is a complex task, according to John Hudak, a fellow in governance studies at Washington, D.C.-based think tank the Brookings Institution.

Not to mention the fact that if he does make it to the Oval Office, Trump won't have a free pass from Congress, even if it remains under the control of the Republican Party (as you'll see, many of his positions don't exactly hew closely to GOP policies).

Taking legislative hurdles out of the equation, what will the U.S. economy and markets look like under President Trump.

Trump's Expensive Immigration Plan

Trump's immigration plans cost him a handful of business deals, but they might cost the United States much more.

The American Action Forum, a right-leaning policy institute based in Washington D.C., estimates that immediately and fully enforcing current immigration law, as Trump has suggested, would cost the federal government from $400 billion to $600 billion. It would shrink the labor force by 11 million workers, reduce the real GDP by $1.6 trillion and take 20 years to complete (Trump has said he could do it in 18 months). 

"It will harm the U.S. economy," said Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and chief economic policy adviser to Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. "Immigration is an enormous source of economic vitality."

The impact would be felt on both supply and demand.

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