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The world has become a more uncertain place since US President Donald Trump issued his "America First" decree in the dark and dystopian language that so alarmed allies and intrigued adversaries. But has it become more dangerous? Not if you look at what's actually happened. President Trump may have stoked fears and churned up chaos with his erratic and volatile Twitter feed. But he has not torpedoed the alliances he has questioned. He hasn't started any new wars and, by and large, he's followed the script of his predecessor, Barack Obama, for the old ones. So, while he may have shaken things up, he hasn't blown anything up. But has this unorthodox commander-in-chief edged us closer to some sort of global crisis? Here are my takeaways. Middle East victory - Islamic State Since he became president, the Islamic State group has been all but defeated in Iraq and Syria - the IS caliphate has been eliminated and its remnants are on the run. Yes, the group has spawned active affiliates in other parts of the world, and it's a brand that continues to inspire extremist violence. But its nerve centre has been severed, making its threat less potent. One can argue about whether Mr Trump is entitled to claim credit or whether he simply completed what Mr Obama started. He did follow Mr Obama's template - supporting local forces with bombs from the air and special operations forces on the ground - but accelerated the campaign and gave American commanders more authority to run it. That "had a major impact", says Brett McGurk, the special envoy for the global coalition to counter the IS group, who has worked for both presidents. Either way, it happened on Mr Trump's watch, and is arguably his biggest foreign policy success. Middle East instability - Iran A year ago, the Americans and five other world powers had reduced the threat of an Iranian atomic bomb with an agreement that limited its nuclear programme. The deal is broadly seen to be working, but Mr Trump says it's deeply flawed and needs to be "fixed". He's threatening to abandon it unless the Europeans who helped negotiate it take a harder line. Mr Trump wants to make the nuclear restrictions permanent, restrict Iran's ballistic weapons programme and counter "malign" Iranian activities not covered in the accord, such as its support for regional proxies that threaten Western allies. These are things the Europeans agree need to be addressed, but not by enfeebling the nuclear deal which, they say, is crucial to their security. There are three potential dangers if the agreement unravels - greater instability in the Middle East, especially given Trump's strong support for Iran's regional rival, Saudi Arabia; and a weakening of the transatlantic alliance, which has been a cornerstone of global security since World War Two. It could also undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on which the Iran deal was built, says Angela Kane, until recently the UN's top disarmament official: "We need to have this as a gold standard. Nuclear war back on radar North Korea's Kim Jong-un has made the world a more dangerous place by building nuclear weapons and threatening the US with them. But Mr Trump has made the situation more dangerous by responding with fiery rhetoric, increasing the risk of accidental conflict with the reclusive and paranoid regime. True, he swings between hurling insults and threats to expressing a willingness to talk. Right now he's doing the latter, going with the flow of the Olympic détente between the Koreas. And the administration has built a strong coalition of international support for a higher-pressure strategy, united in its demand that Pyongyang give up its nuclear weapons.

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